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What’s Next After Prime Minister Oli Failed to Secure Vote of Confidence

www.reviewnepal.com
  Kathmandu, Nepal      May 11 2021

Kathmandu, Nepal, May 11, 2021: Prime Minister KP Oli has failed to secure vote of confidence from the parliament during a vote held at the House of Representatives (HoR) on Monday afternoon. He managed to secure just 93 votes even though the ruling CPN UML has 121 members in the House of Representatives (HoR). 28 lawmakers close to the senior leader duo Madhav Kumar Nepal and Jhala Nath Khanal abstained from the voting, thanks to the internal rivalry in the party.

Prime Minister Oli fell short of 43 votes to continue as the Prime Minister. In the 271 member HoR, 136 votes require to claim the post of Prime Minister. Total of 124 votes were casted against the vote of confidence while 15 lawmakers had remained neutral. 

The main opposition Nepali Congress, CPN (Maoist Center) and Upendra Yadav and Baburam Bhattrai led faction of the Janata Samajbadi Party (JSP) casted their votes against of the vote of confidence.
  
The NC has a total 61 lawmakers while the Maoist Center has 49 including Speaker Agni Prasad Sapkota. Though the JSP has 32 lawmakers, the party has vertically divided into two camps-one led by Yadav and Bhattrai and another led by Mahanta Thakur and Rajendra Mahato over the issue of forming a new coalition government or to support the incumbent Oli-led government. The neutral votes casted were from the Thakur and Mahato-led faction. It is claimed that 17 lawmakers close to Yadav and Bhattrai-led faction of the JSP are in favor of forming a coalition government.  

Even though the NC president Sher Bahadur Deuba, CPN (Maoist Center) Chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal and the JSP President Yadav have asked President Bhandari to initiate process to form a government as per the Article 76(2) of the constitution, the votes of Thakur and Mahato led faction of the JSP is essential to form a majority government.      

The main opposition party, Nepali NC has already made a decision to form a coalition government under the leadership of its President Sher Bahadur Deuba. Likewise, the Maoist Center and Yadav and Bhattrai-led faction of the JSP have also already announced to support to the NC-led government. 

As the NC has 61 members, Maoist Center has 48 members in parliament, 27 votes would require forming a new government. As Yadav and Bhattrai led faction of the JSP has claimed of 17 out of 32 lawmakers, 7 votes would fall short even if the Nepal Workers and Peasants Party, Rastriya Prajatantra Party and Rastriya Janamorcha Party, which have each one seat in the parliament, casted vote in favor of the new coalition government.

The opposition parties would form majority government sans support from the JSP faction led by Thakur and Mahato if 28 lawmakers close to the Madhav Kumar Nepal and Jhala Nath Khanal-led faction of the ruling UML resign en masse from the member of the parliament or the party expels them on the charge of violating the party’s whip to vote in favor of confidence to the Prime Minister Oli. 

If the opposition parties fail to form a coalition government securing majority votes in the parliament, Prime Minister Oli would remain in the post in the capacity of the largest party in the parliament even though Prime Minister KP Oli now has turned into a caretaker prime minister as he lost the confidence of parliament.   

Article 76 (3) of the constitution has made such a provision that the President shall appoint the parliamentary party leader as Prime Minister of the party which has the highest number of members in the HoR. 

Article 100 (3)  of the constitution has made a provision that the Prime Minister shall be relieved of his/her office if the motion tabled under the Articles 100 (1) and (2) is not endorsed through a majority of total number of the existing number of the HoR.